Predictions for Super Bowl 2024: Anticipated outcomes for the 49ers versus the Chiefs, MVP selection, projected score, and eventual champions.
Will Patrick Mahomes secure his third NFL title with Kansas City, or will Brock Purdy lead San Francisco to championship victory in Las Vegas? Oliver Connolly, Andrew Lawrence, Tom Lutz, and Graham Searles analyze the possibilities.
What the Chiefs Need to Do to Win:
1. Focus on Running the Ball: The Niners' run defense has struggled throughout the season, reaching concerning levels recently. Despite the flaws in the Chiefs' offense, their ability to advance through the ground game, particularly with Isiah Pacheco's unique style, can help them gain crucial yards. Establishing a strong running game early on will set the tone for the match and mitigate the challenges posed by their depleted receiving corps. (Oliver Connolly)
2. Improve Receiving: Kansas City squandered home-field advantage due to dropped catches. However, Patrick Mahomes continued to trust his receivers, who have delivered in the playoffs thus far. Rookie Rashee Rice has emerged as a deep threat, and Travis Kelce, despite battling injuries, showcased an impressive performance in the AFC Championship. Against the Niners' vulnerable secondary, both receivers are poised for impactful performances, especially if Pacheco finds his rhythm. (Andrew Lawrence)
The Chiefs' defense successfully contained two of the league's top quarterbacks, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson, in their previous two games, largely thanks to an outstanding secondary. If this defensive prowess persists on Sunday, Patrick Mahomes and Isiah Pacheco, who has been averaging 84.7 yards per game this postseason, should be able to effectively seal the victory. (Tom Lutz)
Andy Reid needs to strategize the offense to capitalize on Rice's ability to make explosive plays. While the rookie had a significant number of receptions in Kansas City's win over the Ravens, Baltimore managed to limit his deep-field impact. In a high-scoring game, the Chiefs will face difficulties if Rice isn't utilized, as solely relying on targeting Kelce in the middle of the field becomes too predictable. (Graham Searles)
Key to Victory for the 49ers:
Prioritize Winning the Turnover Battle: While it may sound elementary, it's crucial. Anticipating complete containment of Mahomes for an entire game is unrealistic. He possesses the capability to put points on the board regardless. San Francisco's offense must maintain patience rather than attempting to force plays early on. If Brock Purdy manages to play a mistake-free game, the onus shifts to the defensive stalwarts of San Francisco – such as Nick Bosa, Fred Warner, and Dre Greenlaw – to create a turnover that could alter the game's momentum. (Oliver Connolly)
Utilize Christian McCaffrey: The 49ers excel when their offense revolves around McCaffrey. He poses a dual threat, capable of running effectively between the tackles and making plays in open space as a receiver. With Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo likely to deploy blitzes from various angles, McCaffrey's role becomes crucial in alleviating pressure on Purdy, who faces his most significant challenge yet. The sooner McCaffrey gets into rhythm, the more opportunities will arise for Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, and other playmakers in San Francisco's lineup. (Andrew Lawrence)
Harness Purdy's Game-Changing Potential: The desired version of Purdy is the one who orchestrates game-winning plays like those against the Lions, rather than the risky ones resulting in turnovers. While Purdy's penchant for high-risk plays is inevitable, 49ers fans will hope for success when he goes all-out. (Tom Lutz)
Strengthen the Defense: Despite being a solid, if not exceptional, unit, the 49ers' defense has faltered in the playoffs amidst criticism of lacking effort from the team. If they fail to muster the motivation to staunchly defend against the run, Pacheco could provide the Chiefs with a strong foundation to build upon in the big game. (Graham Searles)
Key Player for the Chiefs:
1. Nick Bolton, Linebacker: The Chiefs' defense ranks first in EPA per play during the playoffs, largely due to the quality of their cornerback group and Spagnuolo's scheming. However, the pressure on linebackers is intensified against the Niners' offense. While Leo Chenal has shone for KC, Bolton's coverage skills will be crucial in tipping the scales in the Chiefs' favor. (Oliver Connolly)
2. Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Wide Receiver: Valdes-Scantling's errors, including drops and penalties, have hurt the Chiefs in crucial moments this season. To stand a chance against San Francisco in the Super Bowl, he must avoid making any mistakes. (Andrew Lawrence)
3. Patrick Mahomes, Quarterback: Despite concerns about the receiving corps, Mahomes's exceptional talent makes him the centerpiece. With his ability to elevate the team's performance, worries about other aspects pale in comparison. (Tom Lutz)
4. Harrison Butker, Kicker: Butker's flawless record in the playoffs underscores his clutch ability. If the game comes down to a last-minute situation, Butker's reliability could once again secure victory for Kansas City. (Graham Searles)
Key Player for the 49ers:
1. Brock Purdy, Quarterback: Purdy's performance will be pivotal in either scenario of a close, defensive battle or a high-scoring affair. The Niners cannot afford turnovers that would give the Chiefs additional possessions. (Oliver Connolly)
2. Nick Bosa, Defensive End: Bosa's knack for generating sacks is well-known, but he must balance aggression with containment to limit Mahomes's mobility and prevent big plays. (Andrew Lawrence)
3. Fred Warner, Linebacker: With Kansas City's effective run game in the playoffs and past issues with rushing defense, Warner must deliver a top-notch performance to keep the Niners competitive. (Tom Lutz)
4. Christian McCaffrey, Running Back: McCaffrey's multifaceted talent poses a unique challenge for Kansas City's defense. His performance could significantly impact San Francisco's chances, regardless of Purdy's form. (Graham Searles)
One Bold Prediction:
A pick-six determines the outcome of the game. A tense situation in the final minutes of a one-score game sees either a costly mistake or a remarkable defensive play, resulting in a game-changing interception returned for a touchdown. This scenario adds an exciting twist and could potentially crown the Super Bowl champions. (Oliver Connolly)
Additional Bold Predictions:
- Kadarius Toney, initially sidelined, emerges as a surprise contributor for the Chiefs, showcasing his skills in gadget plays or special teams. (Andrew Lawrence)
- The Super Bowl permanently relocates to Las Vegas by 2034 due to its abundance of accommodations, entertainment options, and proximity of the stadium to hotels, catering to the NFL's growing connection with gambling. (Tom Lutz)
- Usher's halftime show includes a roller-skating performance, culminating in a dramatic fall, creating a memorable moment akin to Janet Jackson's infamous wardrobe malfunction. (Graham Searles)
Which team is most likely to return to the Super Bowl next year?
The consensus leans toward the Chiefs. Despite having a slightly weaker roster overall, they boast Patrick Mahomes, often likened to the next Brady, along with a promising young defense. Conversely, the 49ers face impending salary cap challenges, potentially leading to the departure of key players. While the Chiefs play in a competitive AFC with formidable quarterback talent, their sustained competitiveness is anticipated due to Mahomes' presence. However, the 49ers, buoyed by another year of Brock Purdy's rookie contract, remain a strong contender, particularly in the NFC. Nonetheless, the Chiefs' combination of Mahomes and Andy Reid makes them a formidable force to reckon with, with the potential for continued success in the coming years. (Oliver Connolly, Andrew Lawrence, Tom Lutz, Graham Searles)
The frontrunners for Most Valuable Player in the Super Bowl are:
Travis Kelce: If the Chiefs aim to succeed, they heavily rely on Kelce and Mahomes to overcome the challenges posed by their supporting cast. In the playoffs, their synergy has elevated to a level akin to that of Brady and Gronkowski, making them formidable despite being predictable. Kelce needs to deliver a commanding performance, even under the Niners' concerted efforts to contain him. (Oliver Connolly)
Patrick Mahomes: A third Super Bowl victory for Mahomes would elevate him to the echelon of legends like Montana and Brady, intensifying the debate over the greatest quarterback of all time. (Andrew Lawrence)
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (MVS): In a deviation from the quarterback and wide receiver MVP trend of the last seven Super Bowls, MVS emerges as a dark horse candidate. His redemption arc from being a season-long punchline culminates in a standout performance of 128 yards and two touchdowns, adding a compelling narrative to the game. (Tom Lutz)
Brock Purdy: Completing the hero's journey narrative, Purdy leads the 49ers to victory in the Super Bowl. Despite being perceived as less talented than Mahomes, Purdy plays a pivotal role reminiscent of the Chiefs' triumph over the 49ers in 2020. His performance includes multiple touchdown passes, an interception following an ambitious throw, and crucial scrambles, silencing doubters, at least temporarily. (Graham Searles)
The predicted final scores for the Super Bowl are as follows:
49ers 24-27 Chiefs: Despite the Niners being a stronger all-around team, the Chiefs possess Patrick Mahomes, the most talented player in football. The Chiefs' flaws are evident, particularly in their offensive unit, but Mahomes' presence makes them formidable, leading to a narrow victory. (Oliver Connolly)
49ers 24-30 Chiefs: While Purdy performs admirably, the Chiefs' defense ultimately proves too much for him, resulting in a victory for Kansas City. (Andrew Lawrence)
49ers 14-31 Chiefs: Despite the desire to see the Niners claim victory, the reality is a decisive win for the Chiefs. The 49ers' luck in previous games and inconsistent defensive performance signal a convincing victory for Kansas City. (Tom Lutz)
49ers 33-28 Chiefs: With a mix of heart and ego, the prediction leans toward a triumph for the 49ers. Shanahan's strategic prowess and a desire for redemption drive this prediction, setting the stage for a thrilling rematch in the future. (Graham Searles)
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